DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 12Z SAT 11/01 - 06Z SUN 12/01 2003
ISSUED: 11/01 11:16Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN GREECE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF GREECE INCLUDING THE AEGEAN SEA REGION...SOUTHERN ALBANIA...EXTREME WESTERN TURKEY

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAY OF BISCAY, PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MEDITERRENEAN SEA...AND THE AEGEAN SEA

SYNOPSIS

A STRONG ZONAL JET STREAM IS LOCATED OVER THE MEDITERRENEAN SEA. A STRONG JET STREAK FROM NORTHERN AFRICA TO THE CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN WILL PROPAGATED EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RELATIVELY INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE HAS FORMED IN RESPONSE TO THE

DISCUSSION

...CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN AREA AND GREECE...
STRONG JET STREAK LIFTING OUT OF ALGERIA/TUNISIA /WITH 130 KT WINDS AT 300 HPA/ WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD. STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION IN ITS LEFT EXIT REGION HAS INITIATED AN MCS OVER SICILY. SHEAR PROFILES NEAR THIS ACTIVITY ARE MODERATE AT BEST, BECAUSE OF LOCATION WELL NORTH OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...AS ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD PER MM5 AND BOLAM MODEL RUNS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM HAS LEAD TO THE BUILDUP OF MARGINAL /UP TO 1500 J/KG/ LATENT INSTABILITY AS WELL AS BACKED SURFACE WINDS. PRIND THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE GREEK WEST COAST. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THESE WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH PRE-EXISTING MCS INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM THAT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND WHERE TORNADO CHANCES WILL DEMINISH BUT DAMAGING WINDS WILL LONG REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL AGEAN SEA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHERE MOISTER AIR WILL BE AVAILABLE AGAIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE HOWEVER NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA SO THAT CHANCES OF FORMATION OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS /AND THEREBY OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT/ WILL BE LESS.

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